Poland’s Warehouse Market Holds Steady Amid Increased Caution
Where Does the Market Stand After Three Quarters of 2025?
Warsaw, 25 November 2025 – After three quarters of 2025, Poland’s warehouse market continues to show structural stability, with supply, take-up, and investor activity remaining in balance. A total of 4.54 million sqm of industrial space was leased, with renegotiations accounting for 52% of the volume. It reflects a high overall take-up level, as occupiers increasingly focus on long-term cost efficiency and portfolio optimization. At the same time, developer caution and a slowdown in new completions (1.55 million sqm) point to continued growth, albeit at a slower pace. The vacancy rate remains steady at 8.2%, indicating neither pressure to expand nor signs of oversupply. A rise in sale & leaseback transactions and a growing pool of active investors suggest improving market liquidity. AXI IMMO, Poland’s largest commercial real estate advisory firm present the latest market report: “Industrial & Logistics Market in Poland – Q1–Q3 2025”.
Investment Market: Warehouses Just After Offices AXI IMMO analysts note renewed momentum in Poland’s commercial real estate investment market. Between January and September 2025, industrial and logistics assets accounted for 35% of total transaction volume, reaching over EUR 870 million – up 18% year-on-year. The top three transactions included a record-breaking CEE sale & leaseback deal, in which Realty Income Corporation acquired two properties from Polish window manufacturer Eko-Okna for EUR 253.5 million. Other major deals included Reico IS’s acquisition of the LPP distribution center (103,800 sqm) near Bydgoszcz, and Adventum’s purchase of Tenneco’s portfolio (182,800 sqm) in Upper Silesia via a sale & leaseback structure.
Grzegorz Chmielak, Head of Capital Markets, AXI IMMO, explains: “After a period of limited activity and pricing uncertainty between buyers and sellers, 2025 has brought long-awaited stabilization and a return of liquidity. Industrial & logistics remain a haven for investors due to their resilience in times of macroeconomic volatility. This year’s surge was largely driven by sale & leaseback transactions, which helped corporates free up capital while securing long-term income for buyers. We also see growing activity from domestic and regional capital, which has seized the opportunity to make competitive acquisitions.”
Take-up: Renegotiations Driving Volume
Gross take-up between January and September 2025 reached 4.54 million sqm (+20% y/y). Renegotiations accounted for 52% of this volume – a 13 percentage point increase year-on-year. The most active regions included Mazowieckie (1.036 million sqm), Dolnośląskie (709,000 sqm), Śląskie (699,000 sqm), and Łódzkie (625,000 sqm). Net take-up (new leases and expansions) totalled 2.19 million sqm, representing a slight 6% drop from the previous year.
Notable leasing deals in Q1–Q3 2025 include Agata Meble’s lease renewal and expansion at Mapletree Piotrków II (Łódzkie) for 128,200 sqm, as well as two major logistics contracts: a lease renewal at P3 Wrocław II (78,100 sqm) and a new lease for 67,800 sqm at 7R Park Gdańsk III.
Anna Głowacz, Head of Industrial & Logistics, AXI IMMO, comments: “Poland’s industrial & logistics sector remains resilient to broader macroeconomic challenges. Take-up is being driven primarily by consumer-facing industries such as e-commerce, retail, and logistics. Manufacturing expansions are more selective and largely dependent on sector-specific demand. New leases are typically signed as a result of cost optimization efforts or operational constraints in existing facilities.”
Supply: Momentum Slowing Down
Total modern warehouse stock in Poland reached 36.45 million sqm as of the end of September 2025 (+7% y/y). New deliveries from January to September 2025 amounted to 1.55 million sqm, down 26% year-on-year. The largest completions in Q3 2025 included P3 Wrocław (95,000 sqm) and GLP Wrocław V (67,600 sqm) in Dolnośląskie, and Panattoni Park Sosnowiec Expo (62,100 sqm) in Śląskie.
At the end of Q3, 1.56 million sqm was under construction, with most activity concentrated in Mazowieckie (533,000 sqm), Pomorskie (221,000 sqm), and Śląskie (191,000 sqm). Speculative development is down 22% year-on-year to 705,000 sqm, as developers adopt a more cautious approach – prioritizing projects with strong pre-let volumes (at least 40–50%) or BTS schemes.
Vacancy & Rents: Stability with Selective Adjustments
Vacancy rates remain within a stable range of 7.4–8.4%. As of the end of Q3 2025, the national rate stood at 8.2%, unchanged quarter-on-quarter. The highest vacancies were recorded in Lubuskie and Świętokrzyskie (17.2% each), followed by Lubelskie (13.2%). Among the five core regions, Dolnośląskie had the highest vacancy at 10.7%.
Headline rents remain stable, with a slight upward trend in new and pipeline projects. Rates for big-box schemes range from EUR 3.60 to EUR 6.00 per sqm per month. Effective rents, which factor in landlord incentives, can be up to 20% lower depending on location, contract duration, and unit size.
Renata Osiecka, Owner, Managing Partner, AXI IMMO, concludes: “The past several months have shown that the warehouse sector in Poland has reached maturity. Emotions have given way to strategic planning and long-term thinking. Take-up remains solid, and the limited new supply is helping stabilize vacancy and rental levels. Occupiers and investors alike are taking a more deliberate approach to decision-making. Lease renegotiations from the record period of 2021–2022, along with space optimization, will continue to shape the market through year-end. Looking ahead, improving liquidity and falling interest rates should support greater investor activity and gradual yield compression.”
