Market Movers ahead

In the US , a large number of Fed members are due to speak next week, which could shed more light on the Fed members' thinking following the December hike. We should also get more information on the state of the US economy via the releases of industrial production and retail sales data.

It is a very thin calendar in the euro area next week with the most interesting release being the Sentix investor confidence for January due out on Monday.

In the UK , the most important event is the January meeting with the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee on Thursday. Recent developments both economically and in the financial markets mean that the BoE is not in a hurry to follow the Fed's lift-off despite the strong development in the labour market.

Scandinavian inflation releases will be in focus. For Sweden , we expect CPIF to print 0.9 % y/y, which is 0.2 percentage points below the Riksbank's forecast. This is not in itself enough to trigger Riksbank action but we expect this margin to widen again in coming months. In Norway , we expect the weaker NOK to support inflation and we forecast a core inflation print of 3.1% y/y. Finally, for Denmark , we expect an inflation print of 0.2% y/y but there is a fair amount of uncertainty.

Global macro and market themes

This year kicked off with global risk-off sentiment led by China.

Despite China having calmed down at the end of the week, uncertainty is high and a significant problem is the lack of communication from the People's Bank of China.

Increased speculation about ECB easing again is too aggressive due to the better economic outlook.

US manufacturing at an infection point but the Fed is likely to wait until April to hike again.
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The full research in English: Weekly Focus: Scandi inflation week in store